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Alfalah Stable Return Fund Plan XX - Alfalah AMC

57 /100

Total AUM

Rs. --M

Expense Ratio

0.00%

Category Rank

#35 of 92

AI Analyst Thesis
🐻 Bearish

Live NAV

Rs. 0.0000
0.00% 1D ▲ 0.77% YTD
Data As Of:
March 01, 2026

Interactive Performance

Rs.

Executive Summary

Institutional health checks and AI strategy overview.

Overall Score

57 / 100

Fund DNA X-Ray

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Health Checks

  • Clean Portfolio: Zero non-compliant or provisioned assets detected.

  • Outperforming: 1Y Return (4.15%) beats the category median (2.70%).

  • Volatile Path: Only 14 out of 36 months (39%) were positive over the last 3 years.

  • Cost Effective: Expense ratio (0.00%) is below the category median (0.21%).

  • Red Flag: Significant capital outflows detected (-100.0% drop in AUM).

AI Strategy X-Ray

The Alfalah Stable Return Fund Plan XX, a fixed income mandate, operated in a March 2026 environment marked by a sharp equity market crash (-11.5% MoM for KSE-100) and a cautious monetary policy stance (SBP held policy rate at 10.5%). Rising geopolitical tensions (US-Israel-Iran conflict) and a surge in global oil prices to USD 108/bbl stoked inflation fears, pushing money market yields higher across tenors (e.g., 12-month T-bill cut-off rose to 11.50%). The fund likely benefited from higher reinvestment yields but faced mark-to-market pressure on existing bond holdings as the benchmark PKRV yield curve steepened.

Key Manager Actions

  • Portfolio Shifts: The macro environment forced a defensive positioning. The sharp yield curve flattening and surge in short-term rates (1M T-bill cut-off rose from ~10.5% to 11.48%) likely prompted the fund to increase allocation to floating-rate instruments or short-tenor T-bills to lock in higher yields without extending duration, while reducing exposure to longer-dated PIBs to avoid mark-to-market losses.
  • Yield Dynamics: March 2026 delivered a material upward repricing of money market yields as the SBP held rates and inflation ticked up to 7.3%. The fund's current yield likely improved significantly month-over-month, but the total return may have been slightly negative if duration was not fully hedged. The stabilisation of PKR and stable FX reserves provided a tailwind for USD-denominated returns.
  • Forward Outlook: The manager likely remains cautious in Q2 2026. With geopolitical risks elevated and core inflation sticky, any near-term rate cuts are off the table. The fund is expected to maintain a short-duration barbell—holding cash and high-yield T-bills while selectively adding PIBs only if yields rise further (e.g., 5Y above 13%). The eventual de-escalation in the Middle East could trigger a rally in long-dated bonds, but the fund's defensive stance limits upside capture in that scenario.

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