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Alfalah Stable Return Fund Plan XXIII - Alfalah AMC

67 /100

Total AUM

Rs. --M

Expense Ratio

0.00%

Category Rank

#19 of 92

AI Analyst Thesis
⚖️ Neutral

Live NAV

Rs. 0.0000
0.00% 1D ▲ 3.50% YTD
Data As Of:
March 01, 2026

Interactive Performance

Rs.

Executive Summary

Institutional health checks and AI strategy overview.

Overall Score

67 / 100

Fund DNA X-Ray

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Health Checks

  • Clean Portfolio: Zero non-compliant or provisioned assets detected.

  • Outperforming: 1Y Return (6.28%) beats the category median (2.70%).

  • Volatile Path: Only 11 out of 36 months (30%) were positive over the last 3 years.

  • Cost Effective: Expense ratio (0.00%) is below the category median (0.21%).

  • Red Flag: Significant capital outflows detected (-100.0% drop in AUM).

AI Strategy X-Ray

The macro environment in March 2026 was dominated by severe geopolitical shocks—namely the US-Israel conflict with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—which triggered a sharp 11.5% decline in the KSE-100 and a surge in global oil prices. The fund, being a fixed-return vehicle, likely remained insulated from equity volatility, but rising money market yields (up 100-150bps across tenors) and a stable policy rate at 10.5% suggest a cautious positioning. Absolute returns would have been supported by reinvesting at higher yields, while relative benchmark performance is not calculable due to missing fund-specific data.

Key Manager Actions

  • 1. Macro-Driven Yield Surge: March saw the SBP reject or raise cut-off yields across all tenors, with 12M T-Bill yields jumping from ~10.99% to 11.50%. This presents a reinvestment opportunity for the fund but also signals rising inflation expectations. The manager likely increased duration to lock in these higher yields, though the exact pivot is unconfirmed.
  • 2. Geopolitical Tail Risk: The Iran crisis and Strait of Hormuz closure caused a 49% spike in Brent crude and a 16,000-point single-day crash on March 2. For a fixed-income fund, the main risk is secondary market volatility in government securities and potential credit spread widening on any private sector holdings. The fund's stable NAV suggests it held primarily government securities with minimal market risk.
  • 3. Forward-Looking Conservatism: With the MPC holding rates at 10.5% and reaffirming price stability, near-term monetary easing is off the table. The fund's manager is likely maintaining a neutral-to-cautious stance, avoiding aggressive duration bets until geopolitical clarity emerges. Any de-escalation could trigger a bond rally, rewarding those who extended duration in March.

Performance vs. Peers

Trailing absolute returns and consistency analysis.

Sleep Well Metric

Trailing Returns vs Benchmark

Top Tier Alternatives

Algorithmic recommendations based on Master Score and Category performance.

Portfolio X-Ray

Behavioral analysis, historical allocations, and conviction tracking.

AI Reading the Tea Leaves

The Asset River (12M History)

Market Timing Visualizer

Concentration Style

Top 10 Holdings Weight: --%

Broad/Index Aggressive Focus

Manager's Playbook (1M Delta)

Holdings DNA

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Risk & Quant Desk

Institutional engine diagnostics, crash testing, and momentum analysis.

The Magic Quadrant (Risk vs Return)

AI Analyst Note

Engine Diagnostics

Market Capture

Trend & Momentum

Yield & Income Stream

Payout reliability, capital preservation, and cashflow simulation.

Audit & Governance Desk

Fee drag simulation, operational security, and historical FMR vault.

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